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Texas Tech Post-Mortem: OSU – We’re Hard to Beat
Posted by dedfischer on November 10th, 2008 under Uncategorized
Big Picture
It becomes very difficult to secure a victory against Texas Tech, if you can’t maintain your rhythm at the Red Raider offense’s scoring pace. The game plays out like a drum-off between Neil Peart and Rick Allen. Allen can hang for a while, but when Peart gets to his solo, Rick’s going to need that extra arm.
On paper, Tech is a 2 TD favorite in Norman coming off a week of rest. Crabtree and Batch should be nearing 100% health by then. Yeah, I know Sam Bradford got knocked out early in last year’s contest, but he’s not why OU’s an underdog and provides their best chance of staying in the game. Both teams return essentially the same personnel along the lines on each side of the ball, except the Tech front 7 played the OU OL even last year in Lubbock using Jake Ratliff in lieu of McKinner Dixon, Paul Williams at MLB over Brian Duncan, and Colby Whitlock without a year in a BCS S&C program. Colt McCoy, Todd Reesing and Josh Freeman combined to throw for almost 1,100 yards on the Sooner secondary. The OU front 7 allowed 10 yards per carry to Chris Ogbonnaya running behind the Texas OL and Greg Davis blocking schemes. Sam will be exceeding his 33 attempt per game average facing a sufficient pass rush and opportunistic secondary. Although, Gerald McCoy frightens to some extent, and can be a disruptive force, if proper attention is not paid. I think Leach and Matt Moore will figure something out to slow him down. Florida seems to be the only team built to whip Tech’s ass, but I don’t know who else would give the conference a better chance of beating the Gators. However, I’m sure Vegas will have Tech as an underdog, which should provide some sort of motivation for what seems to be a focused Red Raider unit. Facts aside, it’s in Norman, Stoops has a way of having his guys fired up for games like this, and the Bradford/Iglesias/Johnson/Gresham combo provides the Sooners enough fire power for the upset given their defense can create some turnovers. Should be a good game.
It’s not fair to Brandon Pettigrew to label him as the top TE in the Big 12 as he’s one of the top 2 or 3 players overall in this league. Feel fine to draft him as a backup TE late in your fantasy drafts next year. Given his ability to block, Pettigrew will see significant playing time early. I couldn’t argue against Kendall Hunter being the best RB in the conference, although the difference between he and Baron Batch is not of a “hands down” level. I think Batch could outrun him when healthy, but Hunter is stronger and has a lower center of gravity making him difficult to bring down. It’s almost easier to tackle him high than low. Zac Robinson is an asset when leading by 2 TDs and a liability when attempting to come back from 2 TDs. I’ve only seen a little of Baylor’s Jason Smith and probably won’t make an assessment of him until after the Tech game, but Russell Okung is a damn fine left tackle, and arguably the best Tech has faced this season. He’ll outrun Phil Loadholt, and maybe Rylan Reed, in the 40 by five-tenths of a second at the combine next spring. The DL is not real good at rushing the passer and not real good at defending the run. The Cowboy LBs are big and fast for LBs, but slow and stiff for safeties required to match up with slot receivers in zone coverage. Jacob Lacey is a better CB than Graham Harrell’s stat line would indicate. Perrish Cox is fast and susceptible to an array of competent WR moves. The safeties do a good job of not letting big plays behind them as evidenced by Tech’s longest play of 28 yards, but they do an even better job of allowing WRs to run free underneath for easy completions.
The balance achieved by the OSU offense resembles that of a Cognacked Ted Kennedy crossing a Chappaquiddick bridge in a Cadillac. I’m not quite sure at what point running 80% of your offense through two players became the Nastia Luikin standard for balance in generating forward progress on the football field. Gundy has resorted to using color-coded flashcards to signal in plays as an effort to simplify things further. That, or it’s some kind of formula for Zac Robinson to calculate the effects of barometric pressure and crosswinds on a airborne football. Which seems to be off.
Balance this delicate can only be achieved with no Southwesterly prevailing winds.
Offense
Leach’s record improves to 31-3 since 2005, when the RB position receives 20 or more touches. The Batch and Woods combo outgained Hunter and Toston by a 242 to 153 margin in total yardage. The Tech duo got the call 30 times in the game as opposed to 27 touches for the OSU backs. The Red Raider offense was methodical in the 2 back set moving the ball safely down the field with easy underneath throws to Detron Lewis and safe tosses to the backs. Pitch and catch for most of the day, no pressure, pass to set up the run, etc., etc. We’re even blocking people on screens now.
Quarterback
Graham Harrell has been one of the most controversial QBs in Red Raider history. While his whining antics of the past during 4 interception games wore on the Tech fanbase, he’s now viewed as a fiery competitor with outstanding leadership skills and a killer instinct. Harrell gets closer to collecting the finest of fine hardware with each game his decision making and accuracy exceed impeccable.
Running Backs
Batch was Batch and explosive as always. Woods ran with a passion and when he plays at the level he has the last two games, a strong case can be made for the proponents of the platoon system.
Wide Receivers
Crabtree will be receiving Pro Bowl votes this time next year, while catching passes from Matt Hasselbeck. Detron Lewis atoned for a bad drop by securing an equally difficult catch on the next play. Is it just me or does he sometimes look like the quickest guy on the field? Britton proved again he’s capable of catching passes going in the same direction as his inertia. And Oklahoma Parks & Wildlife Officials are still investigating reports of a rabid Chupacabra running loose in the Cowboy secondary. Swindall and Leong have a tendency for exploiting the seams of Cover 2 and securing the football.
Offensive Line
Instead of nitpicking a rather dominating performance, I’ll take a paragraph to discuss Leach and how he’s successfully stayed competitive in this league. The man has a formula for what he wants in OL recruits, and for some reason, hits on an abnormally high percentage of projects. His model of converting oversized high school tight ends and basketball players into athletic offensive tackles carried him in the early years. Daniel Loper, Gabe Hall, Rylan Reed, etc. Brandon Carter is an anomaly with regards to run blocking given his size. Marlon Winn is an all conference player. Louis Vasquez was the most highly rated of the current bunch and receives the most ink, yet he’s serving as a role player on this unit. Now, that Leach has a fairly active streak for developing 2 and 3 star recruits into NFL players, he seems to be eliminating some of the science from his previous recruiting work, by securing commitments from good to elite talent versus projects. I think folks will be surprised at how much the Tech running game improves next season when uber-talented Lonnie Edwards steps in at left guard and Winn moves over to the tackle position in the spring. Carter will stay at right guard and someone will emerge from the pack of Chris Olson, Mickey Okafor and Jake Johnson at right tackle. Hamby needs to hit the weight room hard as he is still overwhelmed by noseguards from time-to-time in single team opportunities. All of a sudden, the Tech OL doesn’t look so much like an un-drive blocking unit. Batch returning, our most talented runner redshirting, and breaking in a new QB with Crabtree gone? In the words of the great Fred Beasley, it’s impotent fo us to block kowea a runnin’ team too. Kowea wasn’t listed on Wikipedia and a Google search only produced images of an angry Communist midget. Much like the QB position, it might not be a bad idea for opposing coaches to watch from afar on who Leach targets each season. (cough, Bob Stoops, cough)
Defense
Another great game called by Ruffin McNeill. With Rajon Henley back in the lineup, Tech suddenly becomes serviceably two deep at DT, which helped against the physical OSU OL. As suspected, McNeill used Darcel McBath over the top and Jamar Wall underneath on Dez Bryant between the 20s. He then made a smart and calculated move by flopping McBath to CB in the red zone to press Bryant and have Wall play the jump ball in the back of the end zone. Good call. Given the OSU power running game and fear of Bryant on the deep ball, we stayed pretty consistent with our base 4-3, Cover 2 zone, but began utilizing our nickel and dime packages as the Cowboys fell further behind and became one dimensional. OSU had some success in places on the ground, but this performance was more than sufficient to secure a victory and most of the damage came off tackle with Jake Ratliff and Sandy Riley in the game. Kickoff coverage was nothing short of stellar.
Defensive Tackles
We’re in as good a shape as anyone for the next 3 years. Whitlock was active again in the run game and recorded a sack as well as forcing an interception. Jones was solid, and Henley reminded us why he was the starter when the season began. You can tell Ruffin has the player’s attention and respect as evidenced by Chris Perry’s improvement from the Texas game to this one. He was unblockable when maintaining a low pad level.
Defensive Ends
Not quite the impressive performance of the past in getting pressure, but this was more a function of schematics than performance. They stayed more disciplined in their rushing lanes and to prevent Robinson from breaking out of the pocket, which was much more critical over the course of this game than sacking him. Pettigrew and Okung/Bond worked over Ratliff and Riley on combo blocks and got the better of Dixon and Williams on a couple of occasions. However, this was one of Brandon Williams’ best games of his career against the run.
Linebackers
The Cowboys execute some of the best designed running plays in college football given their strengths, and managed to accomplish something that’s been hard to do this season, which is make Brian Duncan overrun a play. Twice.
Marlon Williams now has an active 2 game streak of successfully shedding a guard. Bront Bird was largely the victim of serving as Pettrigrew’s blocking assignment. No shame in that as he got Dixon a couple of times as well on his way.
Cornerbacks
L.A. Reed saw his most extended playing time of the season, and seemed to receive the bulk of the snaps at right corner. I don’t have anything to report on that front, which is good.
Jamar Wall did as good a job on Bryant as anyone has done all season, and given the lack of qualified candidates around the league, probably cemented a spot on the All Conference squad with this performance. It takes him a half season to get warmed up.
Safeties
They lit some guys up and Hines forced Bryant to get jello arms on a deep ball. McBath secured another interception, forced a fumble, brought the wood, and contained Bryant on the deep ball. I’m beginning to think All Conference consideration might be selling him short as he and Alabama’s Rashad Johnson seem to be the two safeties I see consistently every week on Sportscenter highlights. Charbonnet had the quietest, most important game on the roster with his perimeter defense on option plays. This seems to be the answer to my concerns after the Kansas game, and I’m perfectly fine with that.
Conclusion
I think the level of focus and execution in this game by the entire Tech team sent a message to the rest of the country. You’re going to have to beat the Red Raiders as the chances of them beating themselves becomes less and less likely every week. When I altered my prediction from a 9-3 finish to 10-2 earlier in the season, I had two concerns that I thought would get us beat: 1. Blocking the Texas DL. 2. Stopping the power running game of OSU. I should be concerned playing the Sooners in Norman, and the uncertainty will no doubt grow as the game nears, but I’m confident we’ll be playing with a lead at some point during the contest.
Whoever came up with this piece of artwork, please post right here on this thread and deserving props will be awarded.
Also, check out Seth C’s report card over at Double T Nation.
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UTHornFan014 said:
November 10th, 2008 at 9:07 am
I think I’m going to describe this game as a methodical castration of the OSU defense. It was quite painful to watch and I kinda felt bad for their defense.
OU has the most explosive offense you’ll have played this season, but I think Tech’s offense will be able to pick OU apart in the middle of the field.
Greg R said:
November 10th, 2008 at 9:28 am
Thanks for the write up, I enjoy reading your reviews.
On the long pass to Dez, it looked like Wall was playing zone so he let him go. Did I see that correctly?
You mentioned that we played cover 2 but I thought our bread and butter was cover 2 with man under. which was it?
Also, in the press conference afterwards, one of the DBs started to reveal the “secret” to covering Dez and Ruffin cut him off. Do you think it was the McBath as CB and Wall as Safety in the redzone that they were talking about? That is pretty dang creative in my book.
Also, at some point, doesn’t someone have to focus on the job of the assistant coaches across the board (except maybe McGuire who is new and growing)?
Thanks again.
dedfischer said:
November 10th, 2008 at 9:58 am
“You mentioned that we played cover 2 but I thought our bread and butter was cover 2 with man under. which was it?”
We played mostly zone from what I saw and pretty dang well, which is a good sign. I think this was mostly due to the threat of Robinson as a runner.
Tim said:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Greg I have been getting ever more concerned about some of our Assistant coaches getting picked off at the end of the season(sans McGuire of course).
I really thought we would hurt this season losing Holgerson, but obviously we are not missing him at all.
I would be willing to bet there are a few of Tech’s offensive assistant coaches getting some offers, simply to get the “Leach Scheme” from these guys.
Good for them though, they work hard and deserve opportunity to better themselves.
At Wit's End said:
November 10th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Somebody said that Wall didn’t play in the first half, due to an ankle injury? Is that true? I was at the game, but I partook in a long tailgating session that blurred everything that happened Saturday.
dedfischer said:
November 10th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
I think he missed a little time, but played most of the game.
Texasholdem said:
November 10th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
I wouldn’t be surprised to see 100 points combined in the Tech/OU game. Tech will torch the OU secondary and I think OU will get theirs as well.
Big Papi said:
November 10th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
ded…good reviews. I dont think there have been too many Tech teams that have come to Norman and made Stoops nervous til this year. Unlike previous years, we have a defense to slow down the OU attack. I think if our defense keeps everything in front of them, stays patient, and limits big plays we can have a good evening. Harrell should be able to exploit a soft underbelly, and gash with Batch/Woods to keep the pressure on OU. In the end, I think we can keep enough pressure on them to make it a game.
Big Papi said:
November 10th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
ded…good reviews. I dont think there have been too many Tech teams that have come to Norman and made Stoops nervous til this year. Unlike previous years, we have a defense to slow down the OU attack. I think if our defense keeps everything in front of them, stays patient, and limits big plays we can have a good evening. Harrell should be able to exploit a soft underbelly, and gash with Batch/Woods to keep the pressure on OU. In the end, I think we can keep enough pressure on them to make it a game. Tech 42 OU 28
NateHeupel said:
November 10th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
“On paper, Tech is a 2 TD favorite in Norman coming off a week of rest.”
A favorite? Sure, I give Tech 3-7 points, and that’s a hell of a compliment considering you’re going to a place where the home team is 60-2 under the current coach.
But 2 TD’s? Not a chance in hell, not even on paper, especially since OU is coming off of a week of rest, too.
Seth C said:
November 10th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Excellent as always.
I did want to point out that Johnson is a senior this year and in August, Matt Moore sounded confident that Okafor would be at right tackle (Moore seems to like an athletic right tackle) and Edwards is firmly entrenched at left guard.
Agreed that Winn will flip to left tackle next year, he will be perfect in that spot.
The secondary is my biggest worry going forward.
Lots has changed since August, but this was the last time that I updated any sort of depth chart: http://www.doubletnation.com/2008/8/17/594858/2008-08-15-updated-texas-t
Lewis said:
November 10th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
“On paper, Tech is a 2 TD favorite in Norman coming off a week of rest.” Translation – you think Tech will win the trench scorecard 5-3. That is taking into account English and the LB Reynolds not playing for OU, I’m assuming. I’m guessing the difference is Tech OL vs. OU DL. Interested in whether you think that is 4-0 or 3-1 Tech advantage?
dedfischer said:
November 10th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
NateHeupel,
On paper, yes, I think Tech is 2 possessions better than OU. Playing at Norman, it will be much closer than that. Where are we different?
dedfischer said:
November 10th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Lewis, Tech OL wins 3-1, and DL plays OU OL even at 2-2. That makes a 5-3 favorite for Tech. I have a hard time believing Tech has 7 guys that will possibly make 1st or 2nd team all conference on defense, but that’s the way it’s starting to shape up. Charbonnet and Dixon might slip to the 3rd team, though.
J.W.B. said:
November 10th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
If OU had to play UT at home, maybe they wouldnt have such a great (60-2) record.
NM99 said:
November 10th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
You seriously need to get Rush and Def Leopard off of your I-pod.
Great read.
papadoc said:
November 10th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
ded I again agree with your statistical observasions but I really think Tech is in for a long day in two weeks & here is why . #1 home field is a huge advantage in college football and ou is very tough at home. #2 ou is loaded with extremly good athletes on both sides of the ball.# 3 tech is(no matter what anyone says) still to a large extent a system type offense that plays well because of rep after rep after rep and because they are firing on all cylinders now, I think this off week actually hurts them. It gets them out of rhythm,and also the pressure will be huge(win this game and your probably in the n.c.game)….your thoughts on this are appreciated. Ive made good money betting on them the last 2 wks. but I am probably going against them vs ou unless you can conveince me otherwise
Lewis said:
November 10th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
“…Tech OL wins 3-1, and DL plays OU OL even at 2-2. That makes a 5-3 favorite for Tech.”
I can’t wait to see your post about the details of Tech DL vs. OU OL. OU has scored so many points, but Texas held them to 48 yards rushing, less than 2 yards per carry. I can see the potential to play them even in the trenches.
When I see K-State score 28 points in the first half against OU, I can more easily see Tech OL winning 3 1/2 to 1/2.
I enjoy reading your stuff.
dedfischer said:
November 10th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
“but I am probably going against them vs ou unless you can conveince me otherwise”
We’ve got plenty of time. The biggest thing is I understand how Tech will slow down OU, but I’m not sure how OU will slow down Tech. They’ve looked much less competent than either UT or OSU on defense in the games I’ve seen them play. Given the way Stoops/Venables have been calling games, this should be a fantasy fiesta for the slot receivers over the middle of the field. Crabtree should also have a nice day on the shallow corner routes behind the corners and under the safeties. If Texas ran on OU, then Tech will be able to as well. In a 9-10 possession game, I see Tech scoring 6-7 TDs and I’m not sure OU is a lock for that number.
welker forpresident said:
November 10th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
This might be a dumb question, but I will ask your thoughts anyway. We have played on artificial turf in I believe all but 1 game this year..2 years ago, it looked like OU let the grass grow a bit higher than normal, do you think that affects us one way or the other?
papadoc said:
November 10th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Thanks ded and am sure you will be going into more depth later.( ill be looking forward to reading) but for now im still going with the old saying ( well,actually its not old ,I made it up) ” somtimes when it comes to college football,…x’s and o’s are like john’s and ho’s…….it dont mean nothin
Lewis said:
November 11th, 2008 at 7:45 am
I’m thinking this past weekend was Tech 6, OSU 2. The score margin was a little wider than that, but I think OSU lost interest in competing in the 4th and could have otherwise put up a garbage touchdown that would have nailed the trench scorecard result.
dedfischer said:
November 11th, 2008 at 11:32 am
“I’m thinking this past weekend was Tech 6, OSU 2. The score margin was a little wider than that, but I think OSU lost interest in competing in the 4th and could have otherwise put up a garbage touchdown that would have nailed the trench scorecard result.”
That’s about how I scored it and thought we were about 4 TDs better. The difference was 36, but I write 8 points off as a home game.
Lewis said:
November 11th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
“…A favorite? Sure, I give Tech 3-7 points, and that’s a hell of a compliment considering you’re going to a place where the home team is 60-2 under the current coach.
But 2 TD’s? Not a chance in hell, not even on paper, especially since OU is coming off of a week of rest, too.”
I do think you are giving Tech more credit than Vegas will. I know that I have started to trust Tech in recent history more with extra prep. time and am not as sure about OU given their bowl record the last two years. I don’t completely rely on that because it is all in the past. Similarly, I don’t think 60-2 intimidates college players that much. Tech has guys on its team that remember being ahead 24-10 in Norman in 2006, a year where Tech was notorious for only playing one half of football.
I don’t think anybody is saying Tech WILL win; just maybe they can and possibly should win. Personally they will have to show me that they can slow down the OU offense. It’s hard to completely take history out of the assessment.
Big Papi said:
November 12th, 2008 at 5:47 am
The point is this, you cant sleep with your coworker and come to work on monday and want her fired. You should know this, Ded. So, we wont have a chance to have a do over OU after we play a week from saturday. While I agree with all your observatios, it will be the pressure that will be the big difference. Heisman trophies, national championship hopes, big 12 titles…these are things Tech has never had on the line… And OU plays for every year.
Lewis said:
November 12th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Where I would be worried is I was rooting for OU is that, if anything, ded is underestimating Tech in the trenches, when he is predicting.
KU – predicted 5-3; actual 7-1
UT – predicted 4-4; actual 5-3
OSU – predicted 4-4, possibly 5-3; actual 6-2
If Tech outperforms a predicted 5-3, even slightly, I don’t think pressure or 60-2 record in Norman or any of the rest of that stuff will matter.
BoomerFreakinSooner said:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Ded Fish – As they say ‘that’s why they play the game’. I’ll be interested to return here post 11/22 to see if you have an appetite for crow.
BoomerFreakinSooner said:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Tech OL wins 3-1, and DL plays OU OL even at 2-2.
What kind of math and analysis is that? If it is so reliable, why haven’t you taken it to Vegas and become a millionaire? You boys out in the high desert must be fertilizing your sagebrush with Longhorn turds before you smoke them.
Lewis said:
November 14th, 2008 at 9:40 am
What kind of math and analysis is that?
http://www.tortillaretort.com/dedfischer/oklahoma-state-prediction/
You might want to read this and see what you think ,if Vegas sets the line at something like OU (-5).
Tim said:
November 14th, 2008 at 11:03 am
BoomerStupidSooner, I would be careful if I were you. Ded has been spot on in his pre-game predictions, he has gotten all 6 of Texas Tech’s conference games right, and his scores predictions are scary close.
If he says Texas Tech is two TD’s better than OU on a neutral field I would take that to the bank. Of course Norman is not a neutral field.
Lewis said:
November 14th, 2008 at 11:20 am
“…fertilizing your sagebrush with Longhorn turds before you smoke them.”
Your boys would be playing for an outright South division title, if your defense hadn’t eaten so many Longhorn turds in Dallas.
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