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Gambler’s Guide to Big 12 Play

Posted by dedfischer on November 13th, 2008 under Uncategorized

Alright, I’m 6-0 ATS picking Tech in conference games.  It’s time for me to get out of my comfort zone by trying to predict the remaining Big 12 games based on the football I’ve seen and what better time to do that than on a bye week.  I’ll avoid games involving Colorado and Iowa State due to my lack of familiarity with their personnel and coaching.

This Week 

Texas 49 Kansas 21

-  I think Texas has one of the best DL in college football with a shitload of speed at end.  Even more than Tech.  That doesn’t bode well for a team starting two freshmen at OT.  Kansas won’t put much pressure on McCoy either.

Nebraska 42 KSU 28

- Nebraska has one of the more underrated OLs in this league and Suh is an all conference player at DT.  The Huskers are short on defensive speed, so Freeman should get some big plays in the passing game down the field.  I was impressed with the NU offensive coaching staff and their playcalling.  They’re more organized at this point, and I’m not sure who’s coaching the Cats right now.  Brandon Harold and Reggie Walker should be enough to keep this thing under 50.

Baylor 38 A&M 35

- The Aggies lack an OL and speed on the defensive front.  Baylor lacks speed on defense and actually has some good players on the OL.  I think Griffin and Johnson will both be good players in time, but I think Art Briles has his kids believing a little bit.  With Griffin, they should.

Next Week

Texas Tech 42 Oklahoma 35

- I think if Texas can put up 45 on them, Tech should be able to hit 50.  The Sooners have been gouged by some OLs and RBs of much less quality than the Tech OL and Batch.  Woods is every bit the threat of Ogbannaya, Sharp and Helu (averaged 130 yards per game and 9 yards per carry).  I can’t believe this, but much like OSU, the Sooners haven’t seen a running game to date the quality of Tech’s.  They haven’t seen a duo as good as Harrell and Crabtree since Todd Reesing (342 passing) and Dezmon Briscoe (12 catches 269 yards 2 TDs) came to town.  However, they did seem improved against Kansas State limiting Josh Freeman to 478 passing and Ernie Pierce to 11 catches for 176 yards.  Something tells me the Sooners aren’t getting pressure on the QB like they usually do.  Losing English and Davis won’t help things.  Neither will starting a 3rd string DT at end.  Anyone who has paid attention to conference play knows Tech has the better defense in this game.  People believe that OU will run the ball on Tech, but the Sooners only averaged 36.5 yards on the ground against the only two good defenses they’ve faced, TCU and Texas.  TCU had to overload at the expense of coverage and yielded 34 points.  Texas didn’t have to and allowed 35 points.  Neither will Tech and it will take 40 to win this game.  Even if they double the yardage allowed of the UT unit, it should be effective enough to prevent OU from controlling the clock.  I provided my theory on Loadholt and why I think Tech may be able to get to Bradford early in this game.  Or late, after he runs out of gas.

Thanksgiving Week

Texas 42 A&M 21

- This is not the year of the Aggie.  Horn DL should be able to control this game.

Oklahoma 38 OSU 24

- Both teams should be able to run the ball a little.  OU can afford to overload and still stop Bryant and Pettigrew, if need be.  OSU doesn’t quite have that luxury.  I thought the Cowboys were a little better than they really are on defense.

Missouri 56 Kansas 35

- I think Mizzou wins by 21 in a high scoring game.  I’m probably a little high on the points.

Texas Tech 49 Baylor 21

- The Bears are much better than in past years, but so is Tech and I don’t see them overlooking this one.

Big 12 Title Game

Texas Tech 49 Mizzou 35

- I think Mizzou can put some points on Tech, but I think Leach has Eberflus-proofed his offense, which is a requirement these days for winning a Big 12 title.  Seeing as how the Mizzou OL couldn’t block OSU’s blitz or UT’s 3 man front makes me believe they can’t block Tech’s 4 man front.  This one has the potential to get bad, if the Tigers can’t figure out a way to slow down Brandon Williams & company.  I think we got it in us.

Also, check Trips and Scipio @ Barking Carnival.

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28 Responses

  1. NM99 said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 12:00 pm

    The fact that improved against Kansas State is considered limiting Josh Freeman to 478 passing and Ernie Pierce to 11 catches for 176 yards bodes well for Tech, given that Harrell and Crabtree are an upgrade.

  2. dedfischer said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 12:08 pm

    I was being facetious.

  3. Lewis said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 12:48 pm

    “However, they did seem improved against Kansas State limiting Josh Freeman to 478 passing and Ernie Pierce to 11 catches for 176 yards.”

    That is very backhanded. Freeman is horribly inaccurate with any pressure at all.

    I don’t buy – Our defense looks bad because they are on the field so much because our offense scores so quickly. I t was used repetitively for Mizzou about their preconfernce schedule, and they couldn’t beat anybody who is really good.

    I can understand numbers and points being put up on back-ups in a blowout, but that doesn’t fit OU for Texas, Kansas, or the first half of K-State.

    Could the OU defense have been sandbagging since the Texas game? Could that be what Venables told the Clemson AD in their interview?

  4. hubcityraider said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 12:51 pm

    So that’s it. you’re calling your shot. tech to the MNC?

    I agree with all of the above predictions.

  5. dedfischer said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 12:57 pm

    It was joke. I thought their secondary looked like a steaming pile of baboon shit against Kansas and Kansas State.

  6. Lewis said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 1:23 pm

    It was a good line.

    I agree with the predictions but think the Bedlam game will be a little closer.

  7. LonghornGuest said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 1:39 pm

    “So that’s it. you’re calling your shot. tech to the MNC?”

    Hey ded, care to weigh in on what a Tech/Florida NC game would look like? :-D

  8. Phenomenal Smith said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 3:16 pm

    ded, have you seen our National Championship Game Predictatron? You enter in your guesses for future lines and it tells you your percentage chance of playing in the title game. This week we’ve added tabs for each school so you can see the behind the scenes assumptions.

    Predictatron 2.0

  9. dedfischer said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 3:30 pm

    LG,

    If we don’t blow this, which is always part of the equation as a Red Raider team, I’ll DVR the SEC championship game and do some extensive breakdowns. I’m not positive about the Florida OL yet. I know the Texas DL handled the Arkansas OL much better than Florida did, so I don’t think they’re any better than Texas on the DL. The secondary is still poops their pants on occasion, but is getting better about wetting the bed, which should bode well for either Harrell, McCoy or Bradford one. The Tech defense is good enough to take two or three things away from you, but not four or five. Tebow looks like he does a good job of spreading the ball around and they’ve got a damn fine running game. I’m thinking their OL is probably pretty good. They seem to be the only SEC team that I think could score with Tech and play solid defense.

    Phen,

    That’s pretty cool. I’ll tinker around with it some.

  10. Clownshoes said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 6:03 pm

    I think TT matches up the best we ever have against OU this year. I dont think this game will be as close as some are predicting. TT by 2 TDs

  11. papadoc said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 6:35 pm

    I still think you are overlooking homefield advantage. Also the off week helps ou with def. stategies but hurts TT by cooling off. OU has been in this position before and tech hasnt, which will be another advantage for ou. That being said I think tech is hungrier than ou and if they get it rolling they can certainly win, but I dont think its going to be any 2tds by any means. Close game all the way, the one who wins is the one who can take the pressure and hype the best over the next 10 days

  12. Lewis said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 7:19 pm

    papadoc

    You must be talking about the OU coaches when you say they have been there before. These current OU players have only been in the hunt for the MNC into November last year, and they lost their chance in Lubbock. I don’t even think you can say the players have been in a single game with the South division up for grabs, because they have had at least two losses in their regular season every year. Also how well have the OU coaches done at strategies to stop Boise State and West Virginia with extra time?

  13. dedfischer said:

    November 14th, 2008 at 5:05 am

    “I still think you are overlooking homefield advantage.”

    I think Tech is a 2 TD favorite on a neutral site. I’m giving them an extra TD for homefield.

  14. NM99 said:

    November 14th, 2008 at 5:09 am

    “I was being facetious.”

    Can’t believe I missed that. Though I had just finished reading some sooner fan over at BC trying to argue that the OU D has gotten better over the past couple of games.

  15. Tim said:

    November 14th, 2008 at 7:20 am

    The Big 12 as a conference should be cheering on Texas Tech and hoping that Tech represents the conference in the National Championship.

    Between UT, OU, and TTU; Texas Tech has the best shot at beating ‘bama or Florida. UT just does not have the horses to beat a team like Florida, nor is their offensive line going to hold up to the Florida team speed blitz packages. Colt McCoy would get rocked in a UT vs. Florida match-up.

    I don’t think anyone wants OU representing the Big 12 in anything more important than the Cotton Bowl. OU has a history of getting destroyed on National Television and embarrasing the conference.

    Texas Tech is the Big 12’s best hope of bringing home a National Championship. This team is built to hang with any team in the Nation. I think most Tech fans would much rather face Alabama than Florida, but I do believe we could hang with Florida. The thing that Florida does better than anyone else in the country is block punts and field goals, which is exactly Texas Tech weakness. The one thing the country is guaranteed to see in a Texas Tech vs. Florida matchup is fireworks and an exciting game.

  16. Sam said:

    November 14th, 2008 at 2:56 pm

    “Though I had just finished reading some sooner fan over at BC trying to argue that the OU D has gotten better over the past couple of games.”

    the OU D has gotten lucky over the past couple of games. Against A&M, they got 4 turnovers. Against Nebraska, they got 4 turnovers (3 on the first 3 drives putting Nebraska in a 21-0 hole). Against KSU, they got 5 turnovers and it was close for a long time. Against Kansas, they got 2 turnovers, both in the first half, both in OU territory.

    Now don’t get me wrong, there’s more than just luck involved with getting turnovers, but it takes a lot of luck to average almost 4 a game over a 4 game stretch.

  17. Rick Strauss said:

    November 14th, 2008 at 4:00 pm

    Tech student forum – no censorship, check it out!

    http://www.techsans.net/forums

  18. redfoot said:

    November 16th, 2008 at 11:13 am

    “dedfischer
    November 13, 2008 at 12:08 pm I was being facetious.”

    I’ve been posting at Raider Power, and it has come to my attention that our fanbase doesn’t understand sarcasm, facetious language, humor and or trolling.

    Doesn’t matter. I think you are right on the money with the Tech-OU outcome, or at least close. Worst case scenario, OU puts up 42, I think we still have them handled, at 45. I think they probably score somewhere between 31-38, in which case, it won’t be very close.

    Taking the spread and Tech is a nice shot at easy money.

  19. dedfischer said:

    November 16th, 2008 at 5:10 pm

    The Aggies suck much worse than anticipated.

  20. NateHeupel said:

    November 16th, 2008 at 9:13 pm

    Watching Tech’s pass rush and secondary, I see no logical reason to think Tech has any chance of holding OU to less than 6 passing TDs at home. Texas couldn’t hold OU to 5 at a neutral site, and UT has a better pass rush.

    “Anyone who has paid attention to conference play knows Tech has the better defense in this game.”
    Tech has 16 INTs on the year, OU has 13. Of Tech 16 INTs, 10 came against what I can only describe as a Charmin-soft OOC schedule. Of OU’s 13 INTs, 4 were OOC. 2 against Cincinnati, 2 against TCU.

    Watching conference play, I’d say OU has a better offense. More points, more balance.

    “People believe that OU will run the ball on Tech, but the Sooners only averaged 36.5 yards on the ground against the only two good defenses they’ve faced, TCU and Texas.”

    Are you comparing the Tech run defense to the #1 and #4 run defenses in D1? That’s laughable, especially when you already stated that TCU sold out to stop the run. Tech is allowing only 1/10th of a yard less on the ground than OU.

    I thought using KU and KSU as your sample for the OU defense were good choices from a Tech perspective. But let’s look at this from the other side…

    I think an equally interesting point of comparison might be Nebraska. The Huskers played Tech into overtime in Lubbock. Tech made Joe Ganz look like a superhero throwing for 349 yards in Lubbock.
    Likewise, Tech took its show to A&M and let Jerrod Johnson throw for 283 yards. Tech was down 23-20 at halftime.
    OU held Joe Ganz to 206 yards. Jerrod Johnson and Stephen McGee COMBINED didn’t throw for 283 yards on OU at Kyle Field.

    ded, isn’t it amazing how you can cherry pick a couple of bad games off of a team’s schedule?

    “I can’t believe this, but much like OSU, the Sooners haven’t seen a running game to date the quality of Tech’s.”

    The reason you can’t believe it is because it’s false and you know better. Texas Tech is 73rd nationally in rushing offense. Kansas is 71st, Texas is 38th, Nebraska is 39th, TCU is 11th. Tech’s run game went from abysmal to adequate, and that’s all.

  21. ARL said:

    November 16th, 2008 at 10:18 pm

    Nate, stats are silly by the way, you know that right? But ok here is a stat, having a offense ranked silly high like 1 or 2 in the country for passing then add 100+ yards running per game = First Downs, one of the many reasons we beat UT…and we are 10-0…I can hear it now, “Red Raider 1st Down” like 30 or 40 times when we play the Sooners…that is why this is indeed the best running game the sooners will face, because it gives us options to control clock time when ou defense decides the pass is the only way Tech will beat them, keep your train of thought and do us a favor and tutor Stoops with your knowledge…may the best team win…

  22. dedfischer said:

    November 17th, 2008 at 4:51 am

    Nate, thanks for stopping by and hope you hang around this week. I’ll try to address all your issues in a series of short topics during the week.

    To all the Red Raider TR readers, let’s try to be insightful and avoid junior high trash talking regarding all the bullshit I hate. Nate’s good people and he’s got a valid argument. Bring over some more Sooners for us as well.

  23. dedfischer said:

    November 17th, 2008 at 5:08 am

    And when you do talk shit, make it funny. That goes for you too, Sooners. I wanna see what you got cause I’ve got some material I’ve been saving.

  24. Big Papi said:

    November 17th, 2008 at 6:22 am

    yeah, and most importantly, Ded. Please remind any our our Red Raider fans goin to Norman that they need to buy beer before they get their. I think you can still only buy 3:2 beer in Okleehomee. Texas Tech 52 OU 45

  25. Knostrathomas said:

    November 17th, 2008 at 7:50 am

    “Watching Tech’s pass rush and secondary, I see no logical reason to think Tech has any chance of holding OU to less than 6 passing TDs at home. Texas couldn’t hold OU to 5 at a neutral site, and UT has a better pass rush. ”

    OUtsiders looking in don’t realize that we as TTU fans aren’t just being homers when we talk about what the defensive line has been able to do this year. I don’t see how anyone could honestly say that UT has a better pass rush.

  26. Tim said:

    November 17th, 2008 at 8:41 am

    “Watching Tech’s pass rush and secondary, I see no logical reason to think Tech has any chance of holding OU to less than 6 passing TDs at home. Texas couldn’t hold OU to 5 at a neutral site, and UT has a better pass rush.”

    If all I did was look at the sack stats, and watch the Tech vs. Oklahoma State game I would agree with you. Where I differ is I have watched all the Tech games and there is no DT in the conference that gets a better push up the middle than Texas Tech. Colby Whitlock will beat his man 60% of the time, and is double teamed quite a bit. Then you have the #1 and #5 Big 12 Sack leaders for DE’s. Texas Tech will get more pressure on Bradford than UT did.

    “Anyone who has paid attention to conference play knows Tech has the better defense in this game.”
    “Tech has 16 INTs on the year, OU has 13. Of Tech 16 INTs, 10 came against what I can only describe as a Charmin-soft OOC schedule. Of OU’s 13 INTs, 4 were OOC. 2 against Cincinnati, 2 against TCU.”

    If your really honest with yourself Texas Tech has played the tougher schedule YTD. I think OU will end with a higher SOS, but as of today Texas Tech has played better competition overall, which probably accounts for the stat disparity.

    “Watching conference play, I’d say OU has a better offense. More points, more balance.”

    I don’t know if you have listened to any National media at all, but leading up to the Oklahoma State game every pundit said that OSU is the most balance team in the country, and Tech wouldn’t be able to stop it. For whatever reason everyone outside of Lubbock thinks traditional balance is a good thing, I think Texas Tech proved last week that they can dominate the most balanced team in the country. If I was an OU fan I wouldn’t use that argument against Texas Tech.

    Are you comparing the Tech run defense to the #1 and #4 run defenses in D1? That’s laughable, especially when you already stated that TCU sold out to stop the run. Tech is allowing only 1/10th of a yard less on the ground than OU.

    Take out 3 blown coverages and TCU comes close to shutting down that Oklahoma offense. From the OU games I have watched, the majority of long scoring plays I’ve seen the CB just completely blow his coverage or falls down. I remember seeing just wide open WR’s in the TCU, Baylor, and Cinncy games. I’m not saying it won’t happen but, Texas Tech has a better secondary than the majority of teams you have played.

    “ded, isn’t it amazing how you can cherry pick a couple of bad games off of a team’s schedule? ”

    I could really tear apart the KU game from both teams perspective and have Texas Tech looking like a rose, but it really doesn’t accomplish anything. What’s more important is the way Texas Tech and Oklahoma matchup than how they did against common opponents.

    “I can’t believe this, but much like OSU, the Sooners haven’t seen a running game to date the quality of Tech’s.”

    “The reason you can’t believe it is because it’s false and you know better. Texas Tech is 73rd nationally in rushing offense. Kansas is 71st, Texas is 38th, Nebraska is 39th, TCU is 11th. Tech’s run game went from abysmal to adequate, and that’s all.”

    Nate, I think Ded means from a yards-per-carry perspective. Oklahoma hasn’t faced a team that has the ability to hurt you on the ground like Texas Tech yet. Just because Texas Tech doesn’t have the most rushing yards in the country doesn’t mean they are not effective running the football. I would argue that Texas Tech more effectively runs the football than Oklahoma. Of course I’m sure you will counter with the argument that Oklahoma has a more effective passing attack than Texas Tech, which from a Yards-per-play standpoint you would be right.

  27. Clownshoes said:

    November 17th, 2008 at 10:27 am

    Yes, you need to bring Texas Beer (Ok’s only 3.2%) or you will have to drink a cooler full and piss every 3 mins to get drunk.

  28. redfoot said:

    November 17th, 2008 at 5:06 pm

    “OUtsiders looking in don’t realize that we as TTU fans aren’t just being homers when we talk about what the defensive line has been able to do this year. I don’t see how anyone could honestly say that UT has a better pass rush.”

    Count me as a non-outsider who couldn’t believe it after seeing it against the non-UT non-OSU opponents. I still didn’t really believe it after the UT game. I kept thinking, there is no way we are that go on the defensive front, something must be off, but I couldn’t figure out what. Then I figured it out, my perception was off. We are awesome up front. We may have one of the best fronts in the nation.

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