Connect with your Facebook Account

• Contact

Articles

40

Your 2009 Red Raiders?

Posted by dedfischer on December 1st, 2008 under Uncategorized

I botched the DVRing of the Baylor game, and the future seems to be intriguing me more.  Great game by the Bears, and the Art Briles/Robert Griffin duo will have Baylor bowl eligible within the next 2 seasons, if not next year.  The Tech team won’t fall off the face of the Earth as predicted in 2009, and how the turnover battle plays out, will determine whether an 8-4 or 10-2 season is in store.  Let’s take a look at what the favorites for the next year will be returning and then take a look at the strengths and weaknesses of Tech.

Oklahoma – The Sooner offense won’t be clicking like it was this year.  Keep in mind, that in 2010, the NFL cap for rookie signing bonuses goes into effect.  OU only returns Trent Williams on the OL, and Iglesias and Johnson are both gone, although Broyles looks like a future star.  I think Gresham will test the draft waters and you can’t just replace a guy like that.  Sam Bradford is draft eligible and this could determine the success of the 2009 Sooners.  Bradford seems like a guy that would come back to play, but if you’ve seen where he’s projected to go lately, it will be a tough decision.  I would like to hear Sooner fans’ thoughts on the subject.  The defense will be downright lethal, even with the loss of Harris and Holmes, as Franks and Jackson are the class of the conference at CB.  They’ll be in the thick of things with Texas, just like they always are.  A trip to Lubbock is their toughest road test.

Oklahoma State – It’s hard to imagine the Cowboys not having the most dangerous offense in the league with Robinson, Hunter and Bryant all returning.  I’ve got some questions about the OSU offense, though, as much of what they do revolves around the graduating Pettigrew and likely early draft entrant Okung.  Solid players in Washington and Denning will be moving on as well, so the cohesiveness upfront of one of the better run blocking units could be of concern.  Tea and Chatham graduate at DT, and I expect the Cowboys to take a JUCO or two this recruiting class for that void.  Overall, I think the defense will hold steady or improve slightly due to another year of experience under the 4-2-5 system.  They’ve got some athletes on that side of the ball.  Watch Okung closely.  The schedule sets up nicely as they draw Tech and Texas at home.

Texas – The Longhorns lose Dockery on the OL, and can’t get much worse.  Ulatoski is their best player.  Cosby and Shipley will be missed early.  The UT offense won’t look much different than it did this season.  Limited run game, McCoy extending plays with his feet, and making throws to some young, but talented WRs.  Kind of a sandlot game that seems to work well for the most part with a trigger man like McCoy.  The strength of the 2008 Longhorns was the DL.  Orakpo and Miller graduate, and it’s tough for even a program like UT to replace guys of that caliber.  The big question will be whether Sergio Kindle enters the draft as his play over the second half of the season could warrant a 1st round selection given he’ll test off the charts at the NFL Combine.  I think he needs another year and Longhorn fans should hope he decides the same.  Teams will be able to run the ball some on the Texas defense next year, and without Kindle, the most effective pass rush will be generated via blitz, which is a risky proposition.  Muckelroy is an active LB with great athleticism, but he’ll be fighting off more tackles and guards next year.  Muschamp’s youth movement in the secondary will pay dividends as this group could be salty with the Browns at CB and Gideon/Thomas/Williams returning at safety.  The Longhorns will have their payback opportunity in Austin against Tech, but must travel to Stillwater. 

Texas Tech 

Strengths next year:

Running game – The secret to Leach’s consistent success on offense over the years hasn’t been in its simplicity and willingness to throw the ball all over the field.  It’s been in his ability to maintain consistency on the OL.  There’s nobody better at evaluating and recruiting the appropriate talent to run their system.  Some have argued that there is a plateau to Leach’s offense, but that’s simply a false assumption.  His lack of a running game is not attributed to a disdain he has for moving the ball via land, but more that Leach was only able to attract one tool OL for his system and it’s much easier to teach a guy to pass block than run block.  For several years, he relied on taking oversized TEs and converting them to OT i.e. Loper, January, Hall, Reed, etc.  Guys with serious physical limitations as drive blockers.  By placing some guys in the NFL, Leach has been able to attract better talent and fewer projects.  Edwards and Byrnes are more proficient drive blockers than Vasquez and Hamby.  Winn will be one of the better OL in the conference next year, and Carter is solid when not facing guys named McCoy, Suh or Miller.  Jeffers might be the best pure runner in the Leach era, and Batch will be a featured guy once again.  I’m guessing we see more playaction and a vertical attack in the passing game with Potts’ arm strength.

Interior run defense – Dixon will be arguably the most complete DE in the Big 12 next season.  He was definitely among the elite run defenders this season.  Williams and Whitlock will receive all conference honors of some degree.  Jones is a much better #2 DT than what Tech has fielded in the past, and Duncan will be the cream of the crop at MLB in the Big 12.  The mysterious substitution patterns by McNeill in the last two games was bizarre as a significant dropoff in talent exists when the Tech backups take the field.  OU and Baylor were able to exploit these substitutions, and the only sensible answers for starting 2nd teamers in those games would be injury or insanity.  I’m hoping it was injury.

Pass rush – With top teams losing valuable cogs on the OL, Williams and Dixon will keep this Red Raider team in most games.  Daniel Howard also returns and proved to be a disruptive force on 3rd and longs.  Aggregately, they’ll double as our best secondary players as well.

Weaknesses next year:

Perimeter speed on defense - I hate saying this about guys, who choose to come to school at Tech, but Marlon Williams and Bront Bird were somewhat of a liability in the last two games, and at other times throughout the season.  When you watch OU play (Travis Lewis/Keenan Clayton), you realize how far Tech has to go athletically at the OLB position, but both have been an upgrade over past personnel.  Problem is, McNeill just doesn’t have any better options at this point and only improved recruiting can solve the problem.

Safety play – This position yielded turnovers in bushels for the Red Raider team in 2008.  Wall is solid at CB, but given the lack of speed at OLB, inexperience at safety does not bode well for the Tech pass defense.  We could have some serious issues here, especially in shootout games.  Bradford and McCoy should have a field day with this group, if B. Williams and Dixon can’t get them to the ground first.

Yet to be determined:

Pass protection – I don’t think this will be bad by any means, but I am extremely concerned about the left tackle position.  This can be negated with a solid running game, though.  Reed wasn’t always the dominator he was made out to be, but he was strong and smart enough to adjust to more talented pass rushers.  Run blocking was never his forte’, however, he became sufficient at sealing guys off.   Chris Olson will most likely get his shot, now, and he needs to become more physical in the spring.  Byrnes is a better run blocker than Hamby, but lacks the lateral mobility to be as effective at blitz pickup and double teams.  He started for an entire season in 2007, so he should be fine.  Communication between Edwards and Olson will be key.

QB play – This might not dropoff as bad as we think, but accuracy and touch are concerns.  Potts has an NFL arm, but he tends to throw swing passes at the same velocity as a 25 yard post pattern.  As long as the OL gels, he should be able to operate the offense efficiently.  Decision making will be the biggest concern as guys with this kind of arm tend to take more chances.  With Sam Bradford accuracy, it proves to be an advantage.  Josh Freeman accuracy, it tends to cost you at least a couple of games a year.  Doege sounded promising in the fall, and the more he pushes Potts for the starting job, the better off Tech will be.  Loucks seems like the odd man out.

Go-to WR – I like Lewis a lot and he’ll be the chain moving, clutch man, but I don’t think he’s a poop your pants WR and it cannot be underestimated how much having Crabtree opened up other things in this offense.  Although, I was surprised to see Baylor overloading against the Tech running game.   I feel Lewis and Swindall are a better duo than Filani and Johnson were at this point in their respective careers, and look for both to have breakout seasons.  I’m guessing either Emory Blake or Aaron Fisher will not be redshirting, but that will be determined by who adjusts to the hitting at this level of football the quickest.  Leach can find slot receivers to play in his offense in the bottom of his Lucky Charms, and I’m sure one of Zouzalik, Douglas, or Celestie will pick up where Eric Morris left off.  Adam James is an underrated blocker, who can run for a TE.  At 6′3″, 220, James would be best served to put on about 15-20 pounds in the offseason and try to fill a James Whalen type role.  If he can become a more physical blocker in the run game, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Leach roll with a TE more in 2009 as he’s coveted this position in the past when blessed with appropriate personnel.  Overall, I don’t see any less talent than the Welker/Francis/Peters/Glover group, and if you think B.J. Symons had a strong arm, you’re in for a treat.

The Sports Guy Ewing Theory – It felt like Harrell and Crabtree forced too many things at times, which isn’t a bad option, but Graham left a lot of easy plays on the field, especially in the last two games.  My girlfriend, who knows almost nothing about football and attended the Baylor game with me, made this quote in the 2nd quarter, “Does Graham Harrell just not like #25?”  Good question.  The book has been written on Harrell and he’s a pre-snap QB.  If his first two reads aren’t there, he becomes somewhat of a liability in the pocket.  Luckily for Tech, they only faced about 2 or 3 teams that could take those reads away from him.  Funny how the offensive efficiency improved after Crabtree left the Baylor game.  Potts shouldn’t feel obligated to get anyone the ball and this could bode well for his ball distribution, although this was probably Harrell’s biggest improvement from his junior to senior year.  I believe much of his decision making was pre-determined whether the player was open or not.

Summary

It’s hard for me to imagine a season of the 2008 capacity.  For every weakness Harrell had, you could also list 2 or 3 strengths, and accuracy might be the most important facet of this offense.  The running game will only get better and the pass rush will be second to none in this conference.  Duncan, Whitlock and Jones have plugged much of the ball control issues that the Tech defense suffered from in the past, but teams will still have some success on the perimeter.  At this point, it’s hard not to consider the Red Raiders an underdog in away games against Texas and OSU, as well as Oklahoma at home.  Road trips to Nebraska, and an ever-improving Baylor squad, will serve as tough tasks, but Tech shouldn’t be out-athleted in either of those matchups.  Given Leach’s history in alleged “rebuilding” years, it’s tough to see him slipping past the 9-3 mark given the talent returning on the DL as opposed to other years.  The progress of Potts and consistency of the run game will determine, if anything better than that can be achieved.  But, by no means, should this outfit be scared of anyone they face as the raw talent and schematics exists to beat anyone on the schedule.  2010 will serve as a rebuilding year for the Red Raiders after pass rushing specialists Dixon and Williams move on.

Article Tags:

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

More from this Author


Share This

  • StumbleUpon

40 Responses

  1. Matt said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 10:44 am

    I might be mistaken, but I thought that Texas’ OL had only one senior this year (Dockery). 4/5 returning starters might actually make the unit into a team strength rather than the liability it has been this year.

  2. dedfischer said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 10:55 am

    I can’t figure it out, Matt. Rivals seems to list Ulatoski, Tanner, Dockery and Hall all as seniors.

  3. dedfischer said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 11:00 am

    Found what appears to be a correct depth chart, confirming your info. I’ll correct.

  4. BP said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 11:18 am

    ded, I was thinking that 2010 would be the really good year, and next season might be somewhat of a rebuilding effort. I feel like more incoming guys from last year’s class and this one might get inserted into the defense to inject more speed and make them ready for 2010, where many of this year’s sophomores, and there’s plenty of them, will be seniors.

  5. dedfischer said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 11:30 am

    BP, DE is the most important position in defending a spread attack. It’s the only position that can take away both the zone read play and the passing game. If you’re going to play the run with an honest front, you have to be solid on both sides as we’ve seen in the last 2 weeks. Bookends like Williams and Dixon don’t come around often, so finding one replacement will be tough, much less two. Duncan and Whitlock should keep the interior run defense solid in 2010, but without a lethal pass rush, we could be taking a serious step back on defense. The offense will be breaking in at least 4 new starters on the OL as well.

  6. UTHornFan014 said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 11:50 am

    Ded,

    Don’t be shocked if you see Shipley running around in a Longhorn jersey next fall. He has the ability to apply for a 6th year of eligibility (medical redshirt) at the conclusion of this season, which the NCAA could grant.

    But, he very well could decide to test the NFL waters if he grades out higher than expected.

  7. RRR said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 11:57 am

    I still expect Okafor to win the job at LT, and I’m curious to see who will compete with Byrnes at Center.

    I find it disconcerting for Potts to be in his 3rd year at Tech and still have so much trouble with screens and dump passes. Hopefully when I attend the spring game I’ll see a change. Or I’ll see Doege doing it all and wonder what it will be like to have a RS Freshman starting for the first time since his sophomore year in HS.

    Experience and off-season can only do so much, so I share your fear of our liability at OLB.

    Great point about the Ewing Theory, and since we don’t have a superstar coming back, there shouldn’t be a temptation to force it. But then again, Potts has shown the propensity to fire into coverage and hope.

    2010 will be interesting if we trot out Hyder and Reilly at DE. Hyder might RS next year, but I don’t think Reilly has that option with the mission deal.

    Do you have faith in Davis/Mitchem/Harris at safety?

  8. dedfischer said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 12:13 pm

    “Don’t be shocked if you see Shipley running around in a Longhorn jersey next fall.”

    I forgot about his medical RS option. I would expect Shipley to return just so McCoy has someone to fish and pray with.

    “Do you have faith in Davis/Mitchem/Harris at safety?”

    So, long as Dixon and Williams are on the field, I feel we have a good shot at sacking the QB before it becomes a problem.

  9. NM99 said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 12:17 pm

    I read that Colt McCoy was considering entering the draft. If he does, Chiles takes the helm. While I think he is a more gifted athlete than McCoy, I can see him getting happy feet in the pocket. If he can run like Vince, no problem. If he can’t, then Texas could be in for a long year while he gains experience.

  10. dedfischer said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 12:21 pm

    I don’t think McCoy will go anywhere. Gilbert will beat out Chiles, if that happens, which should be an interesting experiment for Greg Davis.

  11. jrad said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 12:41 pm

    Ded,

    What would you say are the chances that Doege beats out Potts for the job in 2009? I’ve seen Doege in action a few years ago in person when heh played for frenship and he’s pretty amazing, but it concerns me that he hasn’t played in an actual football game in 3 years due to injury.

  12. RRR said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 12:43 pm

    If I were McCoy I’d leave. No Shipley to fish with, and another year in the Davis offense will likely produce an injury that reduces his pro career.

    Look for Gilbert to bring back the Applewhite/Simms offense. Chiles, learn to be a slot receiver or transfer.

    Okay, I forgot. Mack Brown will lean on McCoy to stay, and he will. But if I were McCoy I’d make them promise to take the zone read out of the offense. Dude just gets killed running that, and it doesn’t matter that he leads the team in rushing.

  13. pickup 18 said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 12:54 pm

    Did you guys know that Shipley and McCoy were roommates and that they have been bathing together since they were youngsters? Pretty interesting tidbit there – with that kind of connection they should definitely stick around.

    I’m pretty worried about Bradford leaving, seeing as how he would probably be the 1st qb taken. If he does we have no one that has ever taken a college snap before so next year would be awful interesting, 2-3 losses at least probably with the departures on the OL. If we can get #8 this year though it would all be worth it.

  14. dedfischer said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 1:07 pm

    pickup, I would love a shot at the Sooners in Lubbock with Landry Jones at the helm. One year of Bradford was enough for me. What’s the feeling in Norman regarding Bradford? He seems pretty savvy and playing his cards close to his chest.

  15. RRR said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 1:08 pm

    Forgot that Hazle was a senior. Could get very interesting for OU at QB next year. Drew Allen as a true Frosh? They did okay with Bomar in that spot, but he had AP to hand off to.

    Eh, Stoops will likely lean on Bradford same as Brown on McCoy.

  16. dedfischer said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 1:09 pm

    “What would you say are the chances that Doege beats out Potts for the job in 2009?”

    Probably not the guy to answer that question, but I see Doege having a tough time beating out Potts given the rep differential at this point in their careers.

  17. pickup 18 said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 1:15 pm

    Yea it would be Landry Jones – really don’t know much about him other than he was pretty highly recruited.

    Bradford has played his cards close to his chest – I really think it could go either way, if we finish this year out and win the NC and he possibly gets the Heisman I could see him leaving. Also as mentioned this is a weak year for qb’s and the rookie salary cap going into effect in 2010. The one thing about Bradford though is he’s an Oklahoma kid, always dreamed about doing what he’s doing right now, not in dire need of $$ right now or anything and I would imagine like McCoy he’s having a decent time at his current gig. It could go either way but I would lean towards him staying. But again, if we win the NC all bets are off..really not sure what you would come back for if that was the case – because it’s very unlikely to happen again in subsequent years…

  18. Odie said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 1:25 pm

    What, no thoughts on the freaking Cotton Bowl?

  19. dedfischer said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 1:36 pm

    Odie, my thoughts on the Cotton Bowl? Party like a carnie on Euclid Street.

  20. dedfischer said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 1:40 pm

    pickup,

    The only thing I can tell you about Jones is that he camped at Tech and Leach didn’t offer him as a QB. Not saying that means anything, but I know Bradford was one of Leach’s first offers. I have heard Jones is a better athlete than a QB.

  21. pickup 18 said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 1:44 pm

    Interesting, in that case we don’t have a freakin qb on campus if Bradford leaves, we’ll see – I agree with you that the people Leach offers is a good predictor of what kind of player the kid might be – not just with Tech qb’s but apparently OU’s as well – Heupel, White, Bradford…

  22. dedfischer said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 1:48 pm

    Don’t leave out Nate Hybl.

  23. pickup 18 said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 2:17 pm

    Wasn’t sure if he would have known about Hybl since he came from GA – what are y’alls thoughts on the events of yesterday, seeing as how you’re the forgotten, cast aside afterthought of this big debate..the venom being spewed from the orange folks is truly astonishing – but I do understand it. I would be pissed if this thing were reversed. As a sooner fan living in TX I’m somewhat fearful for my safety – like some crazed T shirt fan is going to attack me in a convenience store or something

  24. NM99 said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 2:24 pm

    Pickup -

    Everyone saw the writing on the wall after the OU loss. The quotes from the players and coaches are positive, as they should be. In general, everyone acknowledges that 11-1 is damn good, no matter who you are, the system is flawed, but bitching doesn’t help matters. Tech was in the drivers seat all year and didn’t win the one they had to.

    I think the most common sentiment is that the biggest flaw is the limit to 2 teams from a conference in the BCS.

  25. Joe said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 2:36 pm

    Disappointed in your analysis of the left side in total. Vasquez and Reed leaving will be a huge task to replace, both having been multi year starters, two strongest guys on the team, and a new QB with blind side concerns. I think you not taking this change as serious as it will be.

  26. dedfischer said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 2:43 pm

    I’m not bitter in any respect, just happy to be here. Kind of like our team in Norman. It would do the conference no good for us to get a piece of Florida or USC. I would much rather take a shot at pummeling Ole Miss in a backyard recruiting hotbed. We’ve made the strides we needed to this year, and if we could somehow swing a couple more 10 win seasons together, we’ll be around for a while. I trust that next time we’re in this position, Brown and Stoops might not be so lucky in the QB recruiting derby. We just have to stay within striking distance with regards to defensive talent. When Leach first got to Tech, I think we signed 3 or 4 guys total who had offers from other BCS schools, and we’ve come this far. Everybody slammed the door in Tech’s face. From there, we began to beat out teams like Colorado, KSU, Nebraska, Mizzou, etc. I can remember being stoked when we beat out Arizona for recruits. Now, it’s very rare for us to sign a kid without some legit offers and we’re nabbing 3 or 4 a year with either an OU or UT offer. Not claiming we’ve arrived, but tangible progress is being made. We just need to string together 2 or 3 seasons of better than 8-4 each year. I’m hopeful for 10-3 or so, the next couple of years.

  27. dedfischer said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 2:45 pm

    Joe,

    I’ve noted that Reed will be tough to replace, but I think you’re severely underrating what Lonnie Edwards brings to the table with regards to talent. He’ll be a tremendous upgrade in run blocking, while pass blocking is much easier to teach.

  28. papadoc said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 6:37 pm

    ded,I was curious as to your thoughts on Wasson. Has he made acomplete recovery from his surgery? If so do you expect him to return to his full athletic abilities.Iknow there may be a few lingering psychological drawbacks,but do you think he can get his mind right or will we be saying,”that dog wont hunt”

  29. dedfischer said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 7:11 pm

    He’s back in action and I don’t think he lost the explosive first step that had all of us excited when he fetched that first tennis ball.

  30. Bigpapi said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 7:56 pm

    ded.
    I concurr coompletely with your assessment of the OLB’s. Kinda like Leach finally deciding to lean on the run a little more, it will take better athletes at OLB to turn the corner on D. Keep in mind, Bront Bird is one of my favorite players, he just dosnt have the speed to stretch plays to the side line. We have to place more emphasis on that position. Nebraska exploited it, as did Baylor.
    And I’m just not sold on Potts…I told you that saturday, prior to getting shit faced upstairs after half time.
    So..BREAK IT DOWN!!!! Gimme some Ole Miss info…you have been there. I hear that the Gameday guys said the only school with hotter chicks than Tech was Ole Miss..should make for some good scenery in Dallas!

  31. Ridge said:

    December 1st, 2008 at 8:07 pm

    “Potts shouldn’t feel obligated to get anyone the ball”

    Two words: Lyle Leong.

  32. dedfischer said:

    December 2nd, 2008 at 4:43 am

    Ridge, let’s hope not.

  33. dedfischer said:

    December 2nd, 2008 at 5:17 am

    Bigpapi, I’m going to hit Bob Stoops in the teeth with a shovel, if he loses to Missouri and we end up in the Holiday Bowl. Assuming he wins, I’ll be all over Ole Miss. They’re a better team than their 8-4 record probably indicates. You have to be to beat Florida in the Swamp. Especially, this year’s Florida.

  34. nads said:

    December 2nd, 2008 at 6:27 am

    Bigpapi “And I’m just not sold on Potts”…words to die by. I can remember you once saying that “There is no way Tony Romo will start for the Cowboys, Johnson will be the starter” Get with the program BigPapi, you obviously can’t determine who is a good Qb and who is not…Hope all is well in D.C.

  35. RRR said:

    December 2nd, 2008 at 8:34 am

    Report on Rivals indicating the possibility of the Capitol One Bowl taking Ole Miss over Georgia. So then we get Georgia or LSU.

    I’ll take Georgia, and I think that would be a fun game to watch, but LSU would be a crappy situation. To be 11-1 and get an underachieving, but very talented, 7-5 LSU team.

  36. NM99 said:

    December 2nd, 2008 at 11:54 am

    Capital One bowl…your tax dollars at work.

  37. faunchin said:

    December 2nd, 2008 at 12:08 pm

    I don’t understand why the Cotton Bowl would take a 11-2 OU team over a 11-1 Tech team. It seems to me that Tech would be the prefered pick.

  38. Knostrathomas said:

    December 2nd, 2008 at 2:40 pm

    “I don’t understand why the Cotton Bowl would take a 11-2 OU team over a 11-1 Tech team. It seems to me that Tech would be the prefered pick.”

    The Cotton Bowl will take which ever team they think will make them the most money. The game will sell out either way (I think). OU would draw a larger TV audience though.

  39. NM99 said:

    December 2nd, 2008 at 3:27 pm

    Cotton bowl TV audience will be limited by the fact that it is an afternoon game on a day many people have to return to work.

  40. George Custer said:

    December 6th, 2008 at 10:32 am

    Is Sonny Sixkiller eligible next year to transfer in and play QB for the Sooners?

Leave a Reply

Follow Us

Related Articles

Hot Forum Topics